The US Men’s National Team will finish World Cup qualifying Tuesday when they visit Trinidad & Tobago. On paper, the mission is simple for the Americans; win against a team already eliminated, and they’ll be headed to Russia next summer. Even if they tie, that gives Panama and/or Honduras a chance to finish level with the US on points, but they’d need to overtake the Americans on goal difference (entering Tuesday, USA is +5, while Panama is -2 and Honduras is -7).

The worst-case scenario, of course, would be if Team USA loses to the Trinidadians. Should that occur, Bruce Arena and company could be looking at a two-leg playoff with Australia or Syria for a berth, or no berth at all. It could potentially be the first time since 1986 that the US wouldn’t appear in the most-watched sporting event on the planet.

Given how the qualifying cycle has gone over the past year, some might view it as appropriate if Tuesday’s game proves to be an emotional roller coaster. This cycle, after all, began with a loss to Mexico in Columbus, Ohio, breaking the trend of “Dos a Cero” results; it later continued with a crushing loss at Costa Rica, a result that cost Jurgen Klinsmann his job. Under Arena, they’ve steadied the ship, in addition to winning a Gold Cup in the summer.

But Panama and Honduras have made strides as well; the Americans did draw 1-1 when they visited both nations earlier this year. Plus, they both have home matches Tuesday with Costa Rica & Mexico, respectively; those two have already clinched World Cup berths. One would anticipate the USA needing to win their match to ensure qualification.

Bottom line: the Americans have everything to gain, but everything to lose, too. Arena certainly didn’t make things easier with his jab at European nations, and while CONCACAF has indeed improved as a whole, it’s not enough to the point where teams can yet make a push to that top tier of the region – where the US, Mexico, and Costa Rica currently sit. Arena’s job when he was brought in for a second stint with the national team was simple: lead the team to Russia. If they do that, they’ll keep that qualification streak alive, but the initiative will be on them to avoid another tumultuous cycle in four years.