Well, it happened. The U.S. Men’s National Soccer Team, which had used up eight of its nine lives already in this World Cup qualifying cycle, lost 2-1 to Trinidad & Tobago, which coupled with other results from the CONCACAF region, means the Americans will miss out on Russia 2018. It’s the first World Cup without the United States since 1986.

Even more frustrating about the outcome is the fact that after everything they’ve been through over the last 11 months, the Americans still controlled their fate entering Tuesday’s match. A win would’ve guaranteed a trip to Russia next summer; with the US having a superior goal difference to Panama and Honduras, a draw would’ve been enough, too. For the US to miss out, that scenario required a loss AND a Panama win AND a Honduras win.

Yet all three outcomes occurred, and here we are.

What’s most difficult to accept is the way Tuesday’s game unfolded; the USMNT knew they had everything to gain and everything to lose, yet began lethargically. Omar Gonzalez’s own goal seemed to be an omen of things to come, yet credit must be given to Alvin Jones on the Trinidadians’ second goal; had it been Cristiano Ronaldo or Lionel Messi, how many fans would be campaigning for it to win the Puskas Award as the best goal of the year? The Americans did have a pulse in the second half, getting one goal back through Christian Pulisic, followed by two chances late – one denied by the post, the other saved by Adrian Foncette. Again, even with the other results, a tie would have been enough. But it’s a loss, and the questions surrounding the future are ever-present.

What does this say about the legacy of Bruce Arena? He’ll always be remembered for leading the USMNT to the 2002 quarterfinals, but he had one simple job when he returned last year, and he has now failed to deliver.

The responsibility is also on the players, as they will have to spend next summer knowing they won’t compete in the most-watched sporting event on the planet. Tim Howard, Clint Dempsey, DaMarcus Beasley, and other veterans are already in the twilight of their playing days; was this their last qualifying cycle, and is this how their national careers end?

One thing is for sure: it’s going to be a long summer for US Soccer, and the 2022 qualifying cycle cannot begin enough.

The US Men’s National Team will finish World Cup qualifying Tuesday when they visit Trinidad & Tobago. On paper, the mission is simple for the Americans; win against a team already eliminated, and they’ll be headed to Russia next summer. Even if they tie, that gives Panama and/or Honduras a chance to finish level with the US on points, but they’d need to overtake the Americans on goal difference (entering Tuesday, USA is +5, while Panama is -2 and Honduras is -7).

The worst-case scenario, of course, would be if Team USA loses to the Trinidadians. Should that occur, Bruce Arena and company could be looking at a two-leg playoff with Australia or Syria for a berth, or no berth at all. It could potentially be the first time since 1986 that the US wouldn’t appear in the most-watched sporting event on the planet.

Given how the qualifying cycle has gone over the past year, some might view it as appropriate if Tuesday’s game proves to be an emotional roller coaster. This cycle, after all, began with a loss to Mexico in Columbus, Ohio, breaking the trend of “Dos a Cero” results; it later continued with a crushing loss at Costa Rica, a result that cost Jurgen Klinsmann his job. Under Arena, they’ve steadied the ship, in addition to winning a Gold Cup in the summer.

But Panama and Honduras have made strides as well; the Americans did draw 1-1 when they visited both nations earlier this year. Plus, they both have home matches Tuesday with Costa Rica & Mexico, respectively; those two have already clinched World Cup berths. One would anticipate the USA needing to win their match to ensure qualification.

Bottom line: the Americans have everything to gain, but everything to lose, too. Arena certainly didn’t make things easier with his jab at European nations, and while CONCACAF has indeed improved as a whole, it’s not enough to the point where teams can yet make a push to that top tier of the region – where the US, Mexico, and Costa Rica currently sit. Arena’s job when he was brought in for a second stint with the national team was simple: lead the team to Russia. If they do that, they’ll keep that qualification streak alive, but the initiative will be on them to avoid another tumultuous cycle in four years.