Watching the first two matchdays of Champions League games this season, it’s understandable for Manchester United to have emotions of FOMO – fear of missing out. After all, the club was one game away from being part of this year’s competition. But the feeling that accompanied the dismal end to 2024/25 didn’t just disappear over the summer.

It’s a sequence that is nearly identical to how the club went through 2014. Optimism ahead of the first full season of a new manager, and a summer tour in the US that added to the feeling that things could turn around, only for the Premier League to begin poorly. Add to that the humiliation of an early League Cup exit, and fans can be forgiven for already saying 2025/26 is a lost season.

But is it lost already?

I started the first paragraphs of this post in late September, in between the home win over Chelsea and the loss at Brentford. Since then, United won at home 2-0 over Sunderland to move to 10 points after 7 Premier League games; last year it took eight matches to reach double figures in points, and the club parted ways with Erik Ten Hag after a loss the very next week. If Ruben Amorim wants to make it to the 365-day mark of his tenure, and beyond that, United need to start winning more PL matches. And with only the FA Cup to look ahead to in January, there will be no excuse to overlook any of those league fixtures.

A defining characteristic of the club’s recent matches has been the emphasis on scoring the first goal. Against Chelsea, United raced out to a 2-0 lead, and were able to hold on for a critical win. In the Sunderland match, Mason Mount’s goal inside eight minutes set the tone for what can be regarded a standard 2-0 win, the type of result that’s been rare in the post-Ferguson era. On the flip side, United was down 2-0 at Brentford in 20 minutes, and though Benjamin Sesko did pull a goal back, they were unable to manage coming back all the way.

The last time Manchester United came from behind to win a match in May, the Europa League semifinal second leg at home to Athletic Bilbao. The last time they did so in the league, however, was in February to an Ipswich team that would ultimately be relegated. Yes, the first goal is important, but if United are to seriously challenge for a European spot, one part of that will be recognizing that the opening goal is not an end-all be-all situation.

Players are on international break this weekend, but the first match back will be an intimidating trip to Anfield. Amorim would probably prefer this fixture – or any league match – before a break to continue the momentum from Sunderland, but here will come another test of United’s current mettle. They dug deep to salvage a draw at Liverpool a year ago; if they can do so again or go one better, it would go a long way toward proving United can finally put forward results on a regular basis.

Was I being overly optimistic, or just plain naive?

Back in January, I wrote about how Manchester United may have finally turned a corner to head in a positive direction. They’d held eventual Premier League champions Liverpool to a draw at Anfield, and held firm to take an FA Cup match with Arsenal to penalties, where they ousted the Gunners. It seemed as if momentum could be heading back for good to Old Trafford.

Well, a kind of momentum did arrive in the red half of Manchester for the remainder of the season. The other kind.

United’s Europa League Final loss to Tottenham was just the latest setback in a campaign that will be remembered as the worst in a generation. In a matchup of the fifth- and fourth-worst teams in the Premier League, it seems appropriate that the only goal came from a moment of chaos, rather than a moment of brilliance. Brennan Johnson will be the name in lights for Spurs fans to remember, though it could’ve been given as an own goal against Luke Shaw, and the defender wouldn’t have had much room to argue.

But away from the disappointment of just Wednesday’s result in Bilbao, it’s been clear for some time that this Manchester United are incapable of putting together consistent results. They have not won a Premier League game since mid-March, dropping five of their last six in that competition; only a stoppage-time goal from Rasmus Hojlund at Bournemouth keeps that statistic from being six straight losses. With Sunday’s finale against an Aston Villa side that are in contention for a top-five finish, there’s little reason to think United can play spoiler.

So how did one of the iconic brands of the sport get here? A lot of it starts with the back-and-forth of whether to bring back Erik ten Hag for the start of the season. Despite winning the FA Cup in May 2024 over rivals Manchester City, it seemed apparent that the Dutchman’s approach wasn’t working, and a change was needed over the summer. Instead, the club directors stuck with ten Hag for the start of 2024/25, only to part ways in October and give Ruben Amorim a “now-or-never” ultimatum about joining as new manager. Amorim has continually urged patience, and stated after Wednesday’s match that he remains the best man for the job, but the question is whether even he has realized the true scope of the rebuilding that needs to be done.

With no European competition to fall back on next season, United will have no choice but to improve in domestic competitions, and a strong start is paramount to that. The only reason they weren’t in serious danger of relegation this season was because Ipswich, Leicester, and Southampton were all considerably worse. Is it a guarantee that Leeds, Burnley, or other clubs will be equally as bad next year? Or will the players finally realize they need to be proactive and play to the potential that prompted the club to make an investment in them?

Those are questions that will require hard decisions and answers over the next few months. But for now, the fact is that in just over a decade, Manchester United has gone from the dominant brand in English football to a “has-been” punch line, truly the Premier League’s equivalent to the Dallas Cowboys.

There is no joy in the red half of Manchester. Even the eternally optimistic have noticed.