Of all the articles over the last decade written about Manchester United’s struggles – on this site and elsewhere – it boils down to one simple theme. The club’s inability to consistently qualify for the UEFA Champions League puts pressure on individuals to make sure that is remedied quickly. Another such test awaits Erik ten Hag this week.

Simply put, Manchester United need to win at home against Bayern Munich, and hope that the simultaneous Copenhagen-Galatasaray match finishes in a draw. If those results occur, United are through to the Round of 16. A United win will at worst see them transferred to the Europa League knockout round, another trip to Europe’s secondary club competition. Most clubs would embrace that opportunity, but most clubs are not Manchester United.

United have the talent to score on Tuesday, as their 12 goals through five games are top in the group; only four clubs have scored more. The problem, though, has been defending, with 14 goals conceded. Of the team’s four group losses, three of them saw the opponent come from behind to grab the three points, leaving the Red Devils bewildered. The only clean sheet came in large part due to a penalty save from Andre Onana, one bright spot in an otherwise turbulent first season at Old Trafford for the goalkeeper.

But the bigger question is what this means for ten Hag should United fail to qualify for the knockout stage.

When David Moyes took over as manager in 2013/14, Manchester United put together a respectable showing in the Champions League, giving then-champions Bayern all they could handle in the quarterfinals. But when it was clear United was going to miss out on the following year’s competition, Moyes was fired with several games remaining in their season. The next man up, Louis van Gaal, got the club back to the Champions League for 2015/16, but when they finished fifth in the Premier League that spring, not even the FA Cup win could save van Gaal’s job status.

The fortunes can also sway the positive way, too. Ole Gunnar Solskjaer was originally named the interim manager in 2018 after Jose Mourinho’s departure, and it was essentially United’s heroic comeback in Paris that got Solskjaer the job full-time. Should United advance in this year’s Champions League, ten Hag will certainly keep his job for the remainder of this season, but will that just be prolonging the inconsistencies?

Manchester United have their work cut out for them even if they didn’t need to rely on the other group match. Bayern have said they plan on playing to win, even though they have first place in the group wrapped up. A chance for the German club to win on English soil is enticing enough, but when you look at the history between these two clubs – especially what happened 25 years ago next May – it’s unlikely they would overlook a chance to kick United when they’re down.

United have a marquee rivalry game with Liverpool this weekend that will go a long way to determining each team’s Premier League placement this season. But if Manchester United do not advance in the Champions League this week, the countdown may well be on for the club’s new manager.