The latest College Football Playoff rankings sees Ohio State at #6, right behind fellow Big Ten teams Iowa and Michigan State. With the Hawkeyes and Spartans meeting each other Saturday for the conference championship, it stands to reason that the loser will drop in the final rankings, allowing the Buckeyes to get one step closer to a repeat appearance in the playoff.
But should the Buckeyes be among the four teams competing for a national championship? On one hand, Ohio State’s only loss came on a last-second field goal to Michigan State. However, that result meant the Spartans won the Big Ten East, and are in Indianapolis this weekend for the conference title game, not Ohio State.
Should Ohio State get into the top four, it would be controversial, but this happened before in the BCS era. In 2001, Nebraska lost their regular-season finale to Colorado, sending the Buffaloes to the Big 12 Championship Game. Then-Cornhuskers head coach Frank Solich was among many who thought Nebraska’s national championship hopes were done, but the Huskers made the Rose Bowl ahead of Colorado and Pac-10 champion Oregon. Nebraska would be blown out in the Rose Bowl by Miami.
In 2011, Alabama lost in the season to LSU, with the Tigers going on to win the SEC West and later the conference championship. However, in large part because Big 12 champion Oklahoma State also lost late in the regular season, the Crimson Tide received the #2 ranking in the final BCS poll, setting up a rematch with LSU, which Alabama won 21-0.
Those were two of the more prominent examples of why the BCS was flawed (2003 Oklahoma also created plenty of controversy, but that team, unlike the ’01 Cornhuskers and ’11 Crimson Tide, did win their division, although the Sooners were blown out in the Big 12 championship game.) When it was decided there would be a playoff starting in 2014, fans were optimistic that the main problems that plagued the BCS would end.
It may turn out that Ohio State doesn’t get into the 2015 playoff, anyway. Oklahoma has surely guaranteed a spot in the four, as will the Big Ten championship game winner. The current top two – Clemson & Alabama – both have conference championship games on Saturday, and will lock up playoff spots with wins.
But if there are upsets in Charlotte and Atlanta, what are the Buckeyes’ chances of sneaking in then? Does Ohio State get the nod over Stanford if the Cardinal win the Pac-12? If North Carolina does win the ACC, will the committee look at how far the Tar Heels have come from the season-opening loss to South Carolina? The committee did so for Ohio State after the loss to Virginia Tech last year.
The committee’s job can be made very simple on Saturday, or it can be made very complicated. Where the Buckeyes go for bowl season will once again be a talking point for days to come.